Modelling and Risk Analysis Professional Development Group
Mission Statement: To facilitate communication on the topics of predictive modelling (PM) and microbial risk analysis (MRA), encourage research and data reporting methods to support PM and MRA, and promote their applications and use.
Meeting Information
Virtual: TBD
In Person: IAFP 2025
July 27, 2025, Huntington Convention Center, Cleveland, Ohio
How to Join
Involvement in committees and professional development groups (PDGs) offers Members the opportunity to share a wealth of knowledge and expertise. Members of committees and PDGs are the architects of the Association structure. They plan, develop and institute many of the Association's projects, including workshops, publications and educational sessions. Technical challenges facing the food safety industry are discussed, examined and debated. Members may volunteer to serve on any number of committees or PDGs that plan and implement activities to meet the Association's mission.
Membership on a PDG is voluntary (not by appointment) and may vary from year to year.
IAFP Members can manage their PDG involvement by logging in to the IAFP Web site. At the Member Dashboard, click “Edit Profile.” Your profile has two tabs: Contact Info and Professional Info. Select the Professional Info tab and update the PDGs you would like to participate in. We highly recommend that you contact the PDG chairperson for each group to let them know you have joined their PDG.
Non-members can contact Dina Siedenburg, dsiedenburg@foodprotection.org, for more information.
Minutes
Board Responses
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1. Discuss the possibility of removing “microbial” from the MRA PDG mission of the MMRA PDG.
Board Response: Board Response: If a revision to the Modeling and Risk Analysis PDG Mission Statement is needed, please send to Board for approval.
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2. Recommend Dr. Heidy den Besten as Vice Chair Elect to the Board for approval.
Board Response: Board Response: Agree.
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We are writing to request your consideration in approving a change to the Microbial Modeling and Risk Analysis PDG, as discussed during
our last Professional Development Group (PDG) meeting in Toronto. The PDG membership voted overwhelmingly in favor of expanding the scope of this group by renaming it to Modeling and Risk Analysis PDG, over 80% of PDG members agreed to this name change, with a strong turnout of over 83% participation. This change will allow the PDG to apply its expertise beyond microbial hazards to other areas like chemicals. Given this PDG's specialized knowledge in modeling and risk analysis, we believe broadening its purview will provide value. On behalf of the PDG, we kindly ask that you formally consider and approve this name change at the upcoming board meeting to align with the group's expanded focus. The PDG leadership is confident this change will enable the group to better serve the organization and its members.
Board Response: Approved.
- None.
- None.
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Recommend the Board approve Sofia Santillana Farakos as the new Vice Chair.
Board Response: Agree.
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Maintain the student recognition award.
Board Response: Agree. Please share the structure of the student recognition award with other PDG leaders.
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Stress it during the Chair/Vice Chair meeting.
Board Response: Agree. A presentation at the Chair and Vice Chair meeting at IAFP 2020 should be planned.
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Recommend Panos N. Skandamis be approved as Vice
Chair of the Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis PDG.
Board Response: Agree.
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Recommend the Board approve the Microbial Modelling
and Risk Analysis PDG to provide a certificate for those
student abstracts (to be presented as posters/technical
presentations in the forthcoming IAFP meeting) that will
be qualified by the judgment panel of the PDG for being
presented at the PDG.
Board Response: Agree.
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Recommend contacting firms like IBM who are working with the food industry on BIG data across the industry and finding a sway for them to summarize their findings through webinars, symposia or informal sessions.
Board Response: Agree, the Board encourages this PDG to proceed with this effort
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The MMRA PDG again had big support to recommend that recordings of MMRA PDG webinars be made freely available for both ALL IAFP Members and Non-Members. It is especially the most generic subjects that would be good to broadly diffuse.
Board Response: The MMRA PDG again had big support to recommend that recordings of MMRA PDG webinars be made freely available for both ALL IAFP Members and Non-Members. It is especially the most generic subjects that would be good to broadly diffuse.
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Recommend finding a way to fund webinars through the PDG for presentations that cannot be sponsored by a commercial third party, due to the nature of the project (such as a study by a government agency or WHO/FAO). This would help make webinars freely available.
Board Response: The Board is open to optional funding of webinars.
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Recommend to the Board that Bala Kottapalli be approved as the Vice Chair.
Board Response: Agree
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Webinars are a great way of promoting food safety to students, the developing world, small and medium enterprises and other interested parties, and also a good marketing tool for IAFP. Currently, the recordings are only available for members and the webinar itself is freely available if it has as audience PDG members only. The MMRA PDG again had big support to recommend that recordings of MMRA PDG webinars be made freely available for both IAFP members and non-members. The PDG also recommends that webinars sponsored by the MMRA PDG be freely available to members of other IAFP PDGs. This could contribute largely to advancing food safety worldwide, but also improve marketing for new IAFP members.
Board Response: All IAFP members have access to the Webinars including members of other PDGs. Membership in IAFP is economically priced and viewing Webinars is a benefit of IAFP Membership.
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Recommend the Board consider providing electronic addendum for scientific papers published in Journal of Food Protection. Other journals such as the SRA Risk Analysis, IJFM and AEM provide such service so providing electronic addendum to JFP will stimulate people in this domain to submit more papers.
Board Response: Under the new, JFP Online system, authors will be able to submit supplemental information with their manuscript in the format desired for posting upon finalization of their article.
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Webinars are a great way of promoting food safety to students, the developing world, small and medium enterprises and other interested parties, and also a good marketing tool for IAFP. Currently the recordings are only available for members and the webinars itself freely available if it has as audience PDG members only. The MMRA PDG recommends that recordings of MMRA-PDG webinars be made freely available again (as was in the past) for both IAFP members and non-members. The PDG also recommends that webinars sponsored by the MMRA PDG be freely available to members of other IAFP PDGs.
Board Response: Webinars are available to IAFP Members as a member benefit and serve as an incentive to those who are not members to become an IAFP Member. Membership rates are kept extraordinarily low so that it is possible for any interested individuals to be an IAFP Member.
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Recommend to the Board that Marcel Zwietering be the Vice Chair.
Board Response: Approved.
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Recommend to the Board that the MMRA PDG mission statement be revised as follows: To facilitate communication on the topics of predictive modelling (PM) and microbial risk analysis (MRA), encourage research and data reporting methods to support PM and MRA, and promote their applications and use.
Board Response: Approved.
Resources
Webinars
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Cronobacter in the Spotlight: New Insights Into a Known Organism Jul 13, 2022
Organized by: ILSI Europe, the Low Water Activity Foods PDG, Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis PDG, and the International Food Protection Issues PDG
Description: Cronobacter spp. is generally known to survive for long times in dry environments and can also form biofilms. Due to these characteristics the genus is ubiquitous in the environment, and has been isolated from different sources: water, soil, dust, cereals, animal products, herbs, spices and others. Cronobacter spp. (formerly known as Enterobacter sakazakii) was also identified as causative agent in foodborne outbreaks, esp. leading to severe infections, and even death, in infants. Since the majority of cases are in neonates and even premature neonates, the main food product involved is powdered infant formula for babies of 0-6 months. The organism is very robust in surviving dry conditions and is even more difficult to control in dry factory environments than Salmonella. The persistence of these organisms also led to re-occurring outbreaks, fortunately not frequently, but consistent. In this webinar, we will start with a short introduction to the organism and then discuss more details, which are relevant for Cronobacter spp. controls, with an expert panel on subjects like: epidemiology, ecology, persistence, sampling, detection and identification methods, microbiological criteria, and preventive measures. The audience is invited to send in questions beforehand.
Learning Objectives:
- Epidemiology, Ecology, Persistence, Sampling, Detection and Identification Methods
- Microbiological Criteria
- Preventive measures
Presenters- Seamus Fanning , Presenter University of Dublin, Ireland
- Roy Betts, Presenter Campden BRI Group, UK
- Marcel Zwietering, Presenter University of Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Francois Bourdichon, Presenter Università Cattolica Del Sacro Cuore, France
- Stephen Forsythe, Presenter Guest lecturer at the University of Hong Kong and Advisor Center for Food Safety, South Africa
- Anett Winkler, Moderator Cargill, Germany
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IAFP's Software Fair Series Part 2 - USDA Integrated Pathogen Modeling Program (IPMP) Apr 19, 2022
Organized by: The Microbial Modeling and Risk Analysis PDG and the International Committee of Predictive Modeling in Food (ICPMF)
This series of Software Fair webinars aim to spread knowledge about the capacity and usefulness of these tools in industrial food safety and quality applications. The Software Fair webinars have the objective to disseminate the benefits of predictive microbiology, elaborate on its practical principles, and pave the way for the effective use of user-friendly tools; encompassing predictive modeling background in solving practical industrial (e.g., safe product formulations, shelf-life determination, etc.) and/or regulatory-relevant case studies (e.g., exposure assessment, compliance with microbiological criteria, etc.), in a more routine base. It is intended that each webinar presents a brief description of the capabilities of the existing tool(s), and practical case studies or applications; followed by answers to questions/comments from the audience.
Part 2: Integrated Pathogen Modeling Program (IPMP) is a family of Windows-based desktop data analysis and prediction tools specifically developed for predictive microbiology research and application. The tools are designed to analyze individual isothermal growth and survival curves for primary models and the effect of temperature (secondary models) and also for one-step kinetic analysis that combines both primary and secondary models to minimize the residual errors globally. Integrated Pathogen Modeling Platform is a new online data analysis and prediction tool that incorporates the features and functionalities of desktop applications but is specifically designed for dynamic prediction of the growth and survival of foodborne pathogens throughout the supply chain.
Presenters- Lihan Huang, Presenter USDA Agricultural Research Service, United States
- Panos Skandamis, Moderator Agricultural University of Athens, Greece
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Software Fair Series Part 1 - Bioinactivation & Biogrowth Mar 17, 2022
Organized by the IAFP Microbial Modeling and Risk Assessment PDG and the ICMPF Committee
Sponsored by the IAFP FoundationLooking for the best fit for your microbiology data? bioinactivation & bio growth can find it for you.
- Model fitting of growth (biogrowth) or inactivation (bioinactivation) data obtained under isothermal or dynamic conditions, using one-step or two-step approaches.
- Calculation of predictions as deterministic curves or stochastic intervals (with parameter uncertainty).
- Possibility to select between a large variety of models commonly used in predictive microbiology (Baranyi model, Weibull model, Cardinal models...).
Available in two Open Access interfaces: a user-friendly web application, and an R package.
Bioinactivation is an Open Source online tool for modelling microbial inactivation (https://foodlab-upct.shinyapps.io/bioinactivation4/) using the principles of predictive microbiology. It provides food scientists from academia, industry and regulatory agencies with a user-friendly interface to common tasks for the development and application of microbial inactivation models. It can be used to estimate the kinetic parameters from microbial inactivation data gathered under isothermal (using either a one-step or two-step approach) or dynamic conditions. It also includes functions for making predictions under isothermal or dynamic conditions, with the possibility of including parameter uncertainty (resulting in prediction intervals). Besides these prediction and model fitting tools, it includes additional features to aid in the analysis (residual plots to evaluate the goodness of the fit, statistical analyses, time to reach a given microbial count…). The calculations are based on mathematical models commonly used in predictive microbiology (Bigelow, Weibull, Geeraerd…), giving the user the possibility to alternate between them. The modules included in bioinactivation can be used to characterize the microbial response and compare between different treatment conditions, as well as to support microbial risk assessment and process design.
Bioinactivation is entirely Open Source and transparent. The calculations are based on the bioinactivation package for R, available in CRAN (https://cran.r-project.org/package=bioinactivation) and GitHub (https://github.com/albgarre/bioinactivation). The code used to build the web application is also openly available in GitHub (https://github.com/albgarre/bioinactivation4).
Biogrowth is a tool for modeling microbial growth based on predictive microbiology freely available online (https://foodmicrowur.shinyapps.io/biogrowth/). It serves as a user friendly-interface for scientists from academia, industries and regulatory agencies to advanced mathematical tools to describe microbial growth. It implements modules to fit growth models to data gathered under isothermal or dynamic conditions. It can also be used to fit a single model to data gathered under different environmental conditions (global fitting) or to estimate the cardinal growth parameters from a set of growth rates. Biogrowth can also be used to predict microbial growth under isothermal or dynamic conditions, with the possibility to include the effect of parameter uncertainty (resulting in prediction intervals). Furthermore, it includes several tools to aid in the analysis (statistical analyses, residual plots, time to reach a target microbial count…). The users can choose for model fitting or prediction among a variety of models commonly used in predictive microbiology (Baranyi, modified-Gompertz, Ratkowsky, Cardinal…). Therefore, the tools included in biogrowth can aid in the characterization of microbial growth kinetics, as well as to support shelf life estimation and microbial risk assessment.
As well as bioinactivation, Biogrowth is entirely Open Source and transparent. The calculations are based on the biogrowth package for R, available in CRAN (https://cran.r-project.org/package=biogrowth) and GitHub (https://github.com/albgarre/biogrowth). The code used to build the web application is also openly available in GitHub (https://github.com/albgarre/biogrowth_web).
Presenters- Alberto Garre, Presenter Wangeningen University, The Netherlands
- Panos Skandamis, Moderator Agricultural University of Athens, Greece
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Data Science in the Food Industry Mar 16, 2021
Food Safety is one of the main challenges of the agri-food industry expected to be addressed in an environment of tremendous technological progress, where consumers’ lifestyles and preferences are in a constant state of flux. Food chain transparency and trust are drivers for food integrity control and also for improvements in efficiency and economic growth. Similarly, the circular economy has great potential to reduce wastage and improve the efficiency of operations in multi-stakeholder ecosystems. Throughout the food chain cycle, all food commodities are exposed to multiple hazards, resulting in a high likelihood of contamination. Such biological and/or chemical hazards may be naturally present at any stage of the food production, accidentally introduced or fraudulently imposed, putting at risk consumers’ health and their faith in the food industry. Nowadays, a massive amount of data is generated not only from the next-generation's monitoring food safety systems and along the entire food chain (primary production included), but also from IoT, media and other devices, which should be used for the benefit of society. The scientific discipline of "Data Science" should be considered as the vital player of driving forces to make this possible.
Presenters- George Nychas, Presenter Professor, Agricultural University of Athens, Greece
- Panagiotis Skandamis, Moderator Researcher, Agricultural University of Athens, Greece
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The Challenge of Conducting Challenge Tests Sep 13, 2019
It is the responsibility of food business operators to take measures to ensure that food safety criteria are applicable throughout food production processes, food storage conditions and food preparation. In the case of ready-to-eat and/or perishable food which supports microbial growth, predictive microbiology, literature data or challenge test studies are performed to prove compliance to regulation. In the case a challenge test is deemed necessary, the webinar will provide guidance on how to conduct it properly, based on the recently published standard on challenge testing and the European technical guidance document. This will lead to greater confidence in the control of Listeria monocytogenes and thus to safer food.
Sponsored by the IAFP Foundation
Organized by the IAFP
Presenters- Hélène Bergis, Presenter ANSES: French Food Safety Agency
- Paul in 't Veld, Presenter Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority
- Florence Postollec, Presenter ADRIA
- Mariem Ellouze, Moderator Nestlé Research Center
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Applying Behavioral Economics to Model the Threat of Food Fraud Apr 16, 2019
Sponsored by: Battelle
Organized by: IAFP's Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis PDG
Description: The food protection community is well-versed in applying mathematical modeling to estimate microbiological growth as part of assessing food safety hazards or estimating shelf life. In contrast, the application of mathematical modeling to estimate threat based on the behavioral trends is a less familiar, yet very relevant concept in food protection as food fraud incidents perpetrated by people rather than microbes impact both consumers and producers.
Behavioral economics' Utility theory, which has been used to predict trends ranging from consumer preference to terrorist threat, can be applied to proactively quantity the threat of food fraud to a supply chain based on a range of measurable ingredient characteristics. The concept of modeling human behavior and its application to food protection will be discussed and the specific use case of estimating food fraud will be presented in detail.Presenters- Dr. Brian Hawkins, Presenter Research Leader and Program Manager, Battelle
- Dr. Bala Kottapalli, Moderator Senior Principal Microbiologist, Conagra
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The Integration of Omics in Microbiological Risk Assessment Mar 27, 2019
Sponsored by: ILSI Europe
Organized by: Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis PDG
Description: Currently, with the possibilities to investigate microorganisms at molecular level, we are experiencing an exciting momentum in which we can exploit this information to better understand the ecology and physiology of foodborne pathogens. Even more intriguing is the possibility to integrate omics data into risk assessment schemes. It is expected that in the next future this will be used to better control pathogenic microorganisms in the food chain.
After a discussion forum (IAFP Europe 2015), a workshop at IAFP Europe 2016 (co-organized by ILSI Europe, IAFP and ICFMH) a special issue resulted:
Omics in MRA - the integration of omics in microbiological risk assessment
International Journal of Food Microbiology 287, Pages 1-40 (20 December 2018)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/international-journal-of-food-microbiology/vol/287/suppl/CThese papers have the goal to describe the state of the art and create the foundation for a constructive discussion on how to best use, integrate and exploit omics data in MRA. In this webinar the outcome of these paper will be presented.
Presenters- Dr. Heidy den Besten, Presenter Wageningen University
- Prof. Luca Cocolin, Presenter University of Turin
- Dr. Annemarie Pielaat, Presenter Unilever
- Dr. Alejandro Amezquita, Moderator Unilever
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The Role of Water Quality in Food Safety: Does Water Matter? - Part 3: Does Water Quality Matter to My Food Company? Jun 4, 2018
An initiative of the Water Quality and Safety PDG of the International Association for Food Protection - where people who know and care about what water safety means to food safety gather and share their expertise.
Part 1 gave the basics of EPA rules, drinking water monitoring, and disinfection.
Part 2 described what hazards could be in compliant municipal drinking water.
Now In Part 3, learn what to do about it!
First, University of Arizona’s Dr. Chuck Gerba explains the basics of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) and how to determine your risk profile. EPA’s Ken Rotert highlights which EPA Rules and standards might impact food processing, and how to get information on your water supplier; Dr. Vince Hill of the CDC explains why we don’t hear much about water causing food contamination. Finally, hear valuable advice from Will Daniels, President, Produce Division, IEH Laboratories, with practical approaches to control your risk.
This webinar is sponsored by the IAFP's Water Safety and Quality PDG, the Microbial Modeling & Risk Analysis PDG & Atlantium Technologies
Presenters- Chuck Gerba, Presenter Professor, Microbiology & Environmental Sciences, Epidemiology and Biostatistics Dept., University of Arizona
- Kenneth Rotert, Presenter Physical Scientist, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
- Vincent Hill, Presenter Chief, Waterborne Disease Prevention Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
- Will Daniels, Presenter President, Produce Division, IEH Laboratories and Consulting Group
- Phyllis Butler Posy, Moderator Vice President, Strategic & Regulatory Affairs, Atlantium Technologies
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Practical Applications of Microbial Modeling Webinar Series: Part III of III May 22, 2018
Sponsored by
Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis and Meat and Poultry Safety and Quality PDGs
Applications of microbial modeling and risk assessment are critically important to the food industry. This is part III in a webinar series that aims for a deeper-dive into practical considerations in applying modeling tools to inform decisions. Structured around specific food matrices (such as meat and poultry, multi-component foods, and fresh produce), the webinars will focus on examples that may be of practical applications in day-to-day problem-solving.Presenters- Betsy Booren Olsson Frank Weeda Terman Matz PC
- Yuhuan Chen FDA CFSAN
- Tom Ross University of Tasmania.
- Peter Taormina Etna Consulting Group
- Marcel Zwietering Wageningen University
- Bala Kottapalli, Moderator Conagra Brands
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Practical Applications of Microbial Modeling Webinar Series: Part II of III Mar 5, 2018
Applications of microbial modeling and risk assessment are critically important to the food industry. This is part II in a webinar series that aims for a deeper-dive into practical considerations in applying modeling tools to inform decisions. Structured around specific food matrices (such as meat and poultry, multi-component foods, and fresh produce), the webinars will focus on examples that may be of practical applications in day-to-day problem-solving.
Sponsored by Q Laboratories
and
IAFP Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis and Meat and Poultry Safety and Quality Professional Development GroupsPresenters- Marcel Zwietering Professor, Wageningen University
- Betsy Booren Senior Policy Advisor, Olsson Frank Weeda Terman Matz PC
- Peter Taormina, Moderator President, Etna Consulting Group
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Practical Applications of Microbial Modeling Webinar Series: Part I of III Nov 29, 2017
Applications of microbial modeling and risk assessment are critically important to the food industry. This webinar series aims for a deeper-dive into practical considerations in applying modeling tools to inform decisions. Structured around specific food matrices (such as meat and poultry, multi-component foods, and fresh produce), the webinars will focus on examples that may be of practical applications in day-to-day problem-solving.
Presenters- Dr. Tom Ross University of Tasmania
- Dr. Peter Taormina Etna Consulting Group
- Dr. Betsy Booren, Moderator Olsson, Frank, Weeda, Terman, and Matz
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Dose-Response for Listeria monocytogenes presented by Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis (MMRA) Professional Development Group (PDG) Jun 1, 2017
The relationship between the number of ingested Listeria monocytogenes cells in food and the likelihood of developing listeriosis is not well understood. Various dose-response models, based on animal models, outbreak data or epidemiological date are currently available. During this webinar, we’ll recall the specific difficulties in deriving a dose-response for Listeria monocytogenes and describing the various models that are currently developed and used. We’ll present the unique data FDA obtained from recent outbreaks and explain if and how they helped our knowledge of this dose-response.
Presenters- Régis Pouillot Visting Scientist, U.S. Food and Drug Administration
- Fernando Perez Rodriguez Professor, University of Córdoba (Spain)
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MMRA PDG presents Modeling in Foods: Kinetics and Tools Apr 25, 2017
Modeling kinetics in primary models, secondary models, and tertiary models involve microbiology, kinetics, mathematics, statistics, and tools. These aspects will be illustrated and examples of the tools IPMP and Baseline will be shown.
Presenters- Lihuan Huang USDA Agricultural Research Service
- Antonio Valero Díaz University of Cordoba
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Modeling Variability and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: a Case Study of Salmonella in Low-water Activity Foods and its Use in Decision Making Jun 8, 2016
Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis Professional Development Group Presents: Modeling Variability and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: a Case Study of Salmonella in Low Water Activity Foods and its Use in Decision Making. The presence, survival and heat resistance of Salmonella in low-water activity foods is affected by many factors including environmental, processing and those inherent to the pathogen. The estimated risk of salmonellosis from consumption of these products is influenced by these factors as well as consumption patterns, production volume and population numbers. Variability in the value of each factor affects the risk of illness whereas uncertainty in the knowledge of each factor affects the risk estimate. The aim of this webinar is to provide an overview of strategies for incorporating variability and uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment models for Salmonella in low-water activity foods and describe the utility of doing so for the decision maker.
Presenters- Sofia Santillana Farakos
- Regis Pouillot
- Jenny Scott
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The Global Burden of Foodborne Disease - Results and perspectives of WHO’s Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) Feb 9, 2016
The WHO Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group is providing estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases, according to age, sex and region, for a defined list of causative agents of microbial, parasitic, and chemical origin, thereby strengthening the capacity of countries to assess the burden of foodborne disease and increasing awareness and commitment for the implementation of food safety standards. These estimates provide valuable information for food safety professionals.
This webinar is sponsored by Wageningen University, Marcel Zwietering, Leon Gorris, Arie Havelaar and an anonymous MMRA PDG Member.
Presenters- Arie Hendrik Havelaar Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida
- Marcel Zwietering, Moderator Wageningen University
